What is the current probability for "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 78¢ (78% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 7 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1132.1% and 23495.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $129 open interest, making the 78¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread.

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78¢

Bid/Ask 82/91¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $129·Closes Apr 30, 2026·7d remaining

KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T-0.1

7-day price8 snapshots · 3 regime

82¢82¢ current

Apr 1370¢Apr 22

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $129 open interest, making the 78¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (634% for Yes, 11,523% for No) reflect the minimal capital at risk rather than genuine probability assessment, and the sharp 11¢ price movement over seven days suggests recent positioning by a small number of traders. With just 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market is vulnerable to sudden repricing as the March 2026 personal income data approaches, making it unsuitable for meaningful analysis given the negligible liquidity.

Resolution rules

If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above -0.1, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1132.1%

IY (No) 23495.5%

Adj IY 11748%

CRI 5

Overround 5.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1132.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23495.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11748%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 12:14:06 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 12:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →