What is the current probability for "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 7 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4955.3% and 5368.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.3%?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity.

██████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

55¢mid

Bid/Ask 51/59¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·7d remaining

KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.3

7-day price8 snapshots · 3 regime

51¢51¢ current

Apr 1342¢Apr 22

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread, suggesting virtually no real trading activity. The 0¢ price contradicts the astronomical 2702.9% implied yield, indicating a pricing disconnect likely caused by the illiquid, thin market structure rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 14 days to expiry and a recent 8¢ price jump (42¢ to 50¢ over seven days), this appears to be a dormant market with unreliable price signals that should be approached with extreme caution.

Resolution rules

If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above 0.3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4955.3%

IY (No) 5368.1%

Adj IY 2684%

CRI 1

Overround 5.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4955.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5368.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2684%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 12:10:12 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 12:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →