Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.5%?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $25 open interest, making the 8559% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for real trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $25 open interest, making the 8559% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for real trading. The 23¢ price implies a historically low probability for a >0.5% monthly income gain, which would be below the ~0.3-0.4% typical monthly average, suggesting the market may be pricing in recessionary conditions or data disappointment. With just 14 days to expiry and a wide 10¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.5 yes 100