The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
One Battle After Another | 99.6% |
Marty Supreme | 99.5% |
Sinners | 99.2% |
Hamnet | 99.1% |
Frankenstein | 97.0% |
Sentimental Value | 96.5% |
Bugonia | 91.5% |
Train Dreams | 81.0% |
The Secret Agent | 80.0% |
It Was Just an Accident | 72.4% |
F1 | 22.9% |
Weapons | 13.5% |
Blue Moon | 8.5% |
Wicked: For Good | 6.0% |
Sorry Baby | 5.8% |
No Other Choice | 5.0% |
Avatar: Fire and Ash | 4.3% |
Jay Kelly | 4.0% |
Nouvelle Vague | 3.3% |
A House of Dynamite | 2.5% |
The Smashing Machine | 1.8% |
Rental Family | 1.8% |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | 1.5% |
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere | 1.4% |
Anemone | 1.1% |
The Lost Bus | 1.1% |
Die My Love | 1.1% |
Thunderbolts | 0.9% |
The Life of Chuck | 0.9% |
CurrentThe Testament of Ann Lee | 0.5% |
Highest 2 Lowest | 0.5% |
Sound of Falling | 0.4% |
After the Hunt | 0.4% |
Novocaine | 0.4% |
Warfare | 0.4% |
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Kalshi |
| 50.0% |
| $60,120 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 99.0% | $1,452 | Trade |
Kalshi | 8.0% | $577 | Trade |
Kalshi | 99.0% | $57,313 | Trade |