This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Eric Swalwell | 40.0% |
Rick Caruso | 14.6% |
Tom Steyer | 12.5% |
Chad Bianco | 8.9% |
Katie Porter | 8.0% |
Steve Hilton | 4.8% |
Alex Padilla | 4.5% |
Xavier Becerra | 3.0% |
Antonio Villaraigosa | 2.9% |
Kyle Langford | 2.4% |
Kamala Harris | 1.8% |
Stephen Cloobeck | 0.8% |
Betty Yee | 0.8% |
Eleni Kounalakis | 0.7% |
Nicole Shanahan | 0.6% |
Michael Younger | 0.4% |
Butch Ware | 0.3% |
CurrentTony Thurmond | 0.3% |
Daniel Mercuri | 0.3% |
Toni Atkins | 0.3% |
Leo Zacky | 0.2% |
Other | 0.0% |
Option F | 0.0% |
Option G | 0.0% |
Option H | 0.0% |
Option I | 0.0% |
Option J | 0.0% |
Option K | 0.0% |
Option L | 0.0% |
Option M | 0.0% |
Option N | 0.0% |
Option O | 0.0% |
Option P | 0.0% |
Option Q | 0.0% |
Option R | 0.0% |
Option S | 0.0% |
Option T | 0.0% |
Option U | 0.0% |
Option V | 0.0% |
Option W | 0.0% |
Option X | 0.0% |
Option Y | 0.0% |
Option Z | 0.0% |
Option D | 0.0% |
Option E | 0.0% |
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