This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Donald Trump | 12.5% |
UNRWA | 6.5% |
Yulia Navalnaya | 5.5% |
4.2% |
International Court of Justice | 4.0% |
Greta Thunberg | 3.4% |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2.8% |
CurrentPope Leo XIV | 1.7% |
António Guterres | 1.6% |
Narendra Modi | 1.5% |
Khaled Mashal | 1.4% |
Elon Musk | 1.3% |
Charlie Kirk | 1.1% |
Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.8% |
Julian Assange | 0.8% |
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.7% |
Xi Jinping | 0.7% |
Mohammed bin Salman | 0.5% |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.4% |
Vladimir Putin | 0.4% |
Other | 0.0% |
Person AE | 0.0% |
Person AF | 0.0% |
Person AG | 0.0% |
Person AH | 0.0% |
Person AI | 0.0% |
Person AJ | 0.0% |
Person AK | 0.0% |
Person AL | 0.0% |
Person AM | 0.0% |
Person AN | 0.0% |
Person AO | 0.0% |
Person AP | 0.0% |
Person AQ | 0.0% |
Person AR | 0.0% |
Person AS | 0.0% |
Person AT | 0.0% |
Person AU | 0.0% |
Person AV | 0.0% |
Person AW | 0.0% |
Person AX | 0.0% |
Person A | 0.0% |
Person B | 0.0% |
Person C | 0.0% |
Person D | 0.0% |
Person E | 0.0% |
Person F | 0.0% |
Person G | 0.0% |
Person H | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Person M | 0.0% |
Person N | 0.0% |
Person O | 0.0% |
Person P | 0.0% |
Person Q | 0.0% |
Person R | 0.0% |
Person S | 0.0% |
Person T | 0.0% |
Person U | 0.0% |
Person V | 0.0% |
Person W | 0.0% |
Person X | 0.0% |
Person Y | 0.0% |
Person Z | 0.0% |
Person AA | 0.0% |
Person AB | 0.0% |
Person AC | 0.0% |
Person AD | 0.0% |
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