AI bubble burst in 2026?
This contract is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$2.2M
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x857398c4…b168
Market snapshot
December 31, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for AI bubble burst in 2026?. The displayed quote is 27¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $593. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
27¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$593
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 4m ago
Venue identifier: 0x857398c4502bc725fef7efb3cd503a30d3e18e486ab8173fdf505a76cf83b168. Family volume: $2.2M.
Price history
27¢ current
+9¢Orderbook snapshot
25 / 28¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x857398c4…b168
Event family
AI bubble burst by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2.2M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31, 2026 27¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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