AI bubble burst by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
AI bubble burst by
AI bubble burst by...?: December 31, 2026
0x857398…b168
What moved the line
- May 6December 31, 2026↑12pp17→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in technology
- What will Powell say during April Press Conference?: AI / Artificial Intelligencelast 14% · 4d
- What will Bernie Sanders say during The Existential Threat of AIyeslast 79% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.