AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
This contract is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$66K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x4632e96b…341b
Market snapshot
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?. The displayed quote is 24¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $4K. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 6:53 PM UTC.
Outcome
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
24¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$4K
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 6:53 PM UTC · 2m ago
Venue identifier: 0x4632e96b7010fa4c1474d876f178539f11a284761c08842db5dd2e737cf6341b. Family volume: $66K.
Price history
24¢ current
+1¢Orderbook snapshot
22 / 23¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4632e96b…341b
Event family
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$66K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027 23¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 24% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.