Tom Begich to win Alaska Governor Election
Tom Begich is priced at 31¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 30¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Alaska Governor Election Winner .
Price history
31¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Outcome
Tom Begich
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Tom Begich 31¢
Range
0¢-31¢
Family volume
$1.0M
Identifier
0xb120cb1c...3587
Jun 11, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$556
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Alaska Governor Election Winner
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$1.0M
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
0xb120cb1c…3587
Event family
Alaska Governor Election Winner .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.0M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Tom Begich 31¢
Current share
12%
Tom Begich
polymarket · 0xb120cb1c26ad4568844f8e7ee7a91487d5cf4d246fd40410c1f3d4061bfd3587
Bernadette Wilson
polymarket · 0x9aba5bf074182d803c1b6a10814497875562ebb1c62483b36d2a305fc49e0792
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
polymarket · 0x43cedce4a6af0136d37d53408fc965388baee3145db6da72a5b5da8d2746ced3
Treg Taylor
polymarket · 0xbc9964ab2e4e4886796e86263769e34451476172200f99e378e74adc6e202663
David Bronson
polymarket · 0x8377be7973fda37582973f6533625ff035bd7ece986a9762d12b1cfb81baf057
Click Bishop
polymarket · 0xb2fddc90e11d6c55351bfbd5c01e67323f4d177f55f612274a90da92d1ae68db
Hank Kroll
polymarket · 0xb2d876d58365e2c4c8af6a84df51a5425c8a3084b6485d7f4a10af29ce8f49e4
Nancy Dahlstrom
polymarket · 0x90c810df015547545998cc0952258c102fac052861896acf6d58e17938cce0c7
Shelley Hughes
polymarket · 0x12923582cca8ff08ea1bb23e4e042b80e11fae9974d528d9f19249e5ad131f2a
Matt Claman
polymarket · 0xef25acd9423c7c1aeb1a85a2f2e295ce6bcee19abd84a8b99c7e84713434abf3
Mary Peltola
polymarket · 0x74a5ea8aed0261817e6be4371a73a9647bf143857c62bc66211c2d9b97d091a5
James Parkin
polymarket · 0x6ff8d96a792130aa08cfb1e8e1488aa9d4eb4ada325d46af666bb6a8d0e2b0b0
Adam Crum
polymarket · 0x807371dcb1fd0b3e3b406d8b2afa2f72285a896ae5198749a04b7d93c7b57529
Matt Heilala
polymarket · 0x9e7789f9f3bb79883fab8c7c35db58a8834ef442a67d30c780cca57a5f251dc7
Lisa Murkowski
polymarket · 0xe4016942ae2f6c1b349ff44253cec219c4e09a18b05ff44e16ba500fbfffac1e
Edna DeVries
polymarket · 0xe2edbfb83c9b0256b10c93e59f4677d942792ea014274d9c00dc72a38b3c2592
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.