Alaska Governor Election Winner
Leader sits at 31% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Begich
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Bernadette Wilson
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
145 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Bill Walker
0x1aaa09…f9b0
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Tom Begich
0xb120cb…3587
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Treg Taylor
0xbc9964…2663
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
0x43cedc…ced3
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Click Bishop
0xb2fddc…68db
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Matt Claman
0xef25ac…abf3
Alaska Governor Election Winner : Bernadette Wilson
0x9aba5b…0792
Alaska Governor Election Winner : David Bronson
0x8377be…f057
Analysis
This 23% probability reflects the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Alaska's gubernatorial election. The price is derived from aggregated trading across 19 contracts on Polymarket, representing the cumulative judgment of traders with financial stakes in the outcome. Alaska's election dynamics are shaped by voter demographics, incumbency status, and primary results that determine the general election field. The major catalyst ahead is the completion of primary elections and any shifts in candidate viability or name recognition as the campaign enters its final phase. Market pricing will adjust based on polling data, fundraising reports, campaign developments, and historical turnout patterns specific to Alaska's electorate.
- ›Primary election results and which candidates advance to the general election
- ›Incumbent advantage or disadvantage relative to challenger candidate(s)
- ›Polling data in Alaska showing head-to-head matchups and voter preference trends
- ›Campaign funding and spending levels indicating candidate resources and organizational strength
- ›Historical Alaska voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts affecting the likely electorate
What moved the line
- Jun 10Bill Walker↑4pp5→9¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- CA-45 Primary Winnerslast 64% · 0d
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- ME-02 Republican Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
- CA-40 Primary Winnerslast 73% · 0d
- Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)last 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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