Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Polymarket, closing May 11, 2026. This market shows extreme annualized yields exceeding 1,400% on both sides, driven by its short 25-day time horizon to the May 11 finale—a mathematical artifact rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme annualized yields exceeding 1,400% on both sides, driven by its short 25-day time horizon to the May 11 finale—a mathematical artifact rather than genuine opportunity. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $5.4M open interest and a tight 4¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the 50¢ midprice likely reflecting uncertainty rather than informed consensus on Harper's chances. The exceptionally high realized volatility (363%) and elevated info arrival rate (1.1/hour) indicate this is a volatile, information-sensitive market that could see sharp repricing as the finale approaches or new contestant performance data emerges.
Also on kalshi at 43¢(Δ +14¢)
Resolution rules
The season finale of American Idol is scheduled for May 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who wins Season 24 of American Idol. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be the live broadcast of the show, American Idol, and ABC.
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Trade
sf trade 0x1efa3877225e6148aa7405f97f99fe6e83adc4851aa3214136ccf722150422f4 yes 100