Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
This contract is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 19¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 8¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$10K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x5a60b4be…8572
Market snapshot
Another US debt downgrade before 2027 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?. The displayed quote is 22¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $10. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC.
Outcome
Another US debt downgrade before 2027
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
22¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$10
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC · 10m ago
Venue identifier: 0x5a60b4be0fe9dc72939aa24102bb320803cb6d1d43e4945eda48efd683a88572. Family volume: $10K.
Price history
22¢ current
−8¢Orderbook snapshot
19 / 27¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x5a60b4be…8572
Event family
Another US debt downgrade before 2027.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Another US debt downgrade before 2027 23¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.