What is the current probability for "Austin vs Houston Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 42¢ (42% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Austin vs Houston Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3889.3% and 1728.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Austin vs Houston Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Austin vs Houston Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Austin vs Houston Winner?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 6¢ spread and astronomical 5063.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.

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42¢

Bid/Ask 40/42¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,006.45·OI $4,209.31·Closes May 10, 2026·14d remaining

KXMLSGAME-26APR25ATXHOU-HOU

7-day price53 snapshots · 19 regime

40¢40¢ current

Apr 194¢Apr 25

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 6¢ spread and astronomical 5063.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The contract has appreciated 550% over seven days (4¢ to 26¢), indicating either recent information flow or thin-market volatility rather than fundamental repricing. With only 21 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a low-confidence market that should be approached cautiously given the lack of price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Houston wins the Austin vs Houston professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3889.3%

IY (No) 1728.6%

Adj IY 3535%

CRI 2

RV 195%

VR 0.29

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3889.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1728.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3535%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	195%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.29	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 10:53:19 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 10:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25ATXHOU-HOU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →