SimpleFunctions
PolymarketMay 30, 202621 days left

Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?

This contract is priced at 66¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 64¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Implied probability

66¢
$37K volume
$26K liquidity
25% of event volume

Event outcomes

9

Family volume

$148K

Best sibling

Yuri Fulmer 6¢

Ticker

0x5d861bb6…e6c1

Market snapshot

Caroline Elliott in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?. The displayed quote is 66¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1K. In the B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner family, this outcome ranks #1 of 9 by current quote across 9 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

Caroline Elliott

Family rank

#1 of 9

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

66¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 30, 2026

24h volume

$1K

Family context

9 outcomes · B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

Quote range

0¢-66¢

Family leader

Caroline Elliott 66¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 2m ago

Venue identifier: 0x5d861bb608d5f9e41dee2ec7180d6c6f1d115182d3e3092a9173f6051872e6c1. Family volume: $148K.

Price history

66¢ current

+29¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 27, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

64 / 68¢

Polymarket
4¢ spread
BidSize
64¢398
63¢277
61¢500
58¢7
57¢330
44¢86
42¢353
41¢220
AskSize
68¢123
69¢518
70¢247
71¢130
72¢726
73¢167
74¢1.2K
75¢2.7K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 30, 2026

Identifier

0x5d861bb6…e6c1

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

903.3%

IY (No)

3403.6%

Adj IY

1624%

CRI

2

Overround

0.0%

LAS

0.05

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

903.3%
3403.6%
Adj IY
1624%
2
Overround
0.0%
LAS
0.05

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index