B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
Leader sits at 66% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Caroline Elliott
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Kerry-Lynne Findlay
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner: Caroline Elliott
0x5d861b…e6c1
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner: Iain Black
0x3e332a…187b
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner: Yuri Fulmer
0x538703…2a25
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner: Kerry-Lynne Findlay
0xa66889…ef60
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner: Peter Milobar
0xe5609d…df2a
Analysis
This represents the aggregated market expectation that a specific candidate will win the B.C. Conservative Party leadership election at a 35% probability. The leadership race outcome depends primarily on delegate voting patterns and candidate support consolidation among party members. The race will be resolved when the party officially announces the winner following their scheduled leadership vote. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about which candidate will secure the most delegate votes, with different candidates receiving varying probability assignments across available contracts.
- ›Caroline Elliott contract trades at 41¢ while unnamed winner contracts average 35¢, suggesting market fragmentation across multiple candidates
- ›Trading volume on B.C. Conservative contracts ($1,411 combined) is substantially lower than major U.S. election contracts, indicating lower information density and potentially higher price volatility
- ›No single candidate contract dominates (Yuri Fulmer at 4¢, Caroline Elliott at 41¢), suggesting the field remains competitive with multiple viable outcomes
- ›Market probabilities must sum to approximately 100¢ across all candidates, meaning the referenced 35% represents partial probability for one outcome in a multi-candidate race
- ›The timing and mechanics of the party's delegate selection process will directly determine which voting coalitions succeed
What moved the line
- May 6Caroline Elliott↑28pp40→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Kerry-Lynne Findlay↓17pp34→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Peter Milobar↓8pp18→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Caroline Elliott↑7pp32→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Iain Black↑6pp6→12¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.