This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending in December 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Current≤2.8% | 89.1% |
2.9% | 6.0% |
3.0% | 0.9% |
3.1% | 0.4% |
≥3.2% | 0.4% |