This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Thomas Massie | 72.5% |
Ed Gallrein | 26.3% |
Nicole Lee Ethington | 1.6% |
Robert Wells Jr. | 1.5% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate K | 0.0% |
Candidate L | 0.0% |
CurrentCandidate M | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Candidate A | 0.0% |
Candidate B | 0.0% |
Candidate E | 0.0% |
Candidate F | 0.0% |
Candidate G | 0.0% |
Candidate H | 0.0% |
Candidate I | 0.0% |
Candidate J | 0.0% |
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