The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon). This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of this election. If voting in the Thai legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Thai House of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
People’s Party (PPLE) | 62.5% |
Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) | 30.5% |
Pheu Thai Party (PT) | 7.1% |
0.1% |
United Thai Nation Party (UTN) | 0.1% |
Democrat Party (DP) | 0.1% |
Chart Thai Pattana Party (CTPP) | 0.1% |
Prachachat Party (PCC) | 0.1% |
Party Z | 0.0% |
Party O | 0.0% |
Party P | 0.0% |
Party Q | 0.0% |
Party R | 0.0% |
Party S | 0.0% |
Party T | 0.0% |
Party U | 0.0% |
Party X | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Party A | 0.0% |
Party B | 0.0% |
Party C | 0.0% |
Party D | 0.0% |
CurrentParty E | 0.0% |
Party F | 0.0% |
Party G | 0.0% |
Party H | 0.0% |
Party I | 0.0% |
Party J | 0.0% |
Party L | 0.0% |
Party M | 0.0% |
Party N | 0.0% |
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