What is the current probability for "Botafogo vs Internacional Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Botafogo vs Internacional Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 62881.3% and 109.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Botafogo vs Internacional Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Botafogo vs Internacional Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Botafogo vs Internacional Winner?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 0¢ price paired with a 6033% implied yield, suggesting no active trading despite a 7-cent spread.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 10/14¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $14,001.82·OI $15,673.32·Closes May 9, 2026·14d remaining

KXBRASILEIROGAME-26APR25BOTINT-INT

7-day price137 snapshots · 7 regime

33¢17¢ current

Apr 183¢Apr 25

Analysis

6d ago

This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 0¢ price paired with a 6033% implied yield, suggesting no active trading despite a 7-cent spread. The match was originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 but the market doesn't close until May 9, 2026—a 14-day gap that raises questions about whether the game has already occurred or been postponed, making the current pricing completely unreliable. With only 20 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this market appears abandoned and should not be used for any analytical or trading purposes.

Resolution rules

If Internacional wins the Botafogo vs Internacional professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62881.3%

IY (No) 109.2%

Adj IY 15720%

CRI 24

RV 8294%

VR 5.64

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	62881.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	109.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15720%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8294%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.75	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:20:09 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:08:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRASILEIROGAME-26APR25BOTINT-INT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →