SimpleFunctions

Helder Barbalho · Brazil Presidential Election

Helder Barbalho is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Brazil Presidential Election.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

0¢ current

−37¢
0¢25¢
May 14, 2026May 14, 2026

Contract brief

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Outcome

Helder Barbalho

Rank

#10 of 16

Leader

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40¢

Range

0¢-40¢

Family volume

$86.1M

Identifier

0x919c9bc4...9faf

May 26, 2026, 3:57 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

0¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 26, 2026, 3:57 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

0¢

Ask

0¢

Spread

0¢

24h volume

$66K

Family rank

#10 of 16

16 outcomes · Brazil Presidential Election

Closes

Oct 4, 2026

Family volume

$86.1M

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 0¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
0¢736K
AskSize
0¢5.0K
0¢540K
2¢187
2¢142
2¢193
100¢774
100¢200
100¢2.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Oct 4, 2026

Identifier

0x919c9bc4…9faf

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Brazil Presidential Election.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$86.1M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40¢

Current share

1%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

polymarket · 0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8

40¢
$5.9M$74K0.0

Flávio Bolsonaro

polymarket · 0x1a01bf78f56a507fcb666d564d8c8b91b0750679163ed6e96746102c9b7d285d

28¢
$6.0M$23K0.0

Renan Santos

polymarket · 0x05297f854d3b757d5e51a1a29c7f225a80b14b2a161d6b7f9a61677da7a80ced

14¢
$5.8M$50K0.0

Fernando Haddad

polymarket · 0xdd3d104667774208eae2239f576122ecdd1c04ba81cc14d26d22a36b33887977

8¢
$5.1M$128K0.1

Romeu Zema

polymarket · 0x054725b2a7971376f7924a7021221b12acc50fe78d97817824fe411704d5b5a2

5¢
$2.9M$18K0.0

Michelle Bolsonaro

polymarket · 0x37ec4c6b57a18b16eed1241f6155ee7ff45bc1697d7848f15ac33d406e38ed00

2¢
$6.7M$42K—

Ronaldo Caiado

polymarket · 0xbca3d70ec52a5a441ccc365a3b1b48b9cd0f08dfff4bc5871e2cd92d0d92caa1

2¢
$3.2M$52K—

Camilo Santana

polymarket · 0x101d084cd035070abde58d8a3113b78e11ba68028b0d9e7e38ea7d780797aecc

2¢
$2.6M$71K—

Jair Bolsonaro

polymarket · 0x63d8f3a34c90bd5342dda8acf62b6a898dfa52f86475efaf180b66493ef6af80

1¢
$3.9M$14K—

Tarcisio de Freitas

polymarket · 0x81a537b379a35e4e17c286d3b37394e94bd74c1779bbe9a13670eb991b201a3a

0¢
$12.1M$103K—

Eduardo Bolsonaro

polymarket · 0xe1d5733322fd2215f136412f419d9ff805d097f78c68de3261515ff736895f2b

0¢
$9.1M$53K—

Ratinho Júnior

polymarket · 0xa59bb6bb91e5c1e4d533864520fbd3bb75d6d0ebb813b4cd8a8b88479bfa8966

0¢
$9.1M$23K—

Eduardo Leite

polymarket · 0x70f1a7d2cd490b640676d5e31470bcbe16fef40087de1af8b6f6e44e299b5784

0¢
$7.1M$52K—

Aldo Rebelo

polymarket · 0xafd3f96b7b6084509e625270538ff0699003fafc042263c1216e7f084cef753a

0¢
$3.4M$40K—

Geraldo Alckmin

polymarket · 0xd0536d9612e041312235baceac52bde48821e8aad4607533513b3782904b7d49

0¢
$2.8M$31K—

Helder Barbalho

polymarket · 0x919c9bc428d2d19400437852066582b11bb7b00ad78529a0069cde76766b9faf

0¢
$610K$69K—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.477

Observability

medium

Event type

political

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SimpleFunctions context

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Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

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Event Probability API

Read 0% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

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World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.