Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula's reelection odds have declined 7% over the past week to 40¢, suggesting deteriorating political sentiment or market reassessment of his viability heading into the 2026 race. The 322% implied yield on YES positions indicates substantial underpricing relative to the neutral regime, though the tight 1¢ spread and healthy $12M daily volume suggest reasonable liquidity for a market with 170 days to expiration. The modest 2 Cliff Risk Index and balanced open interest of $188.9K suggest this is a relatively stable market without extreme tail risk concerns, though the significant yield differential warrants monitoring for potential mean reversion or fundamental shifts in Brazilian politics.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade