What is the current probability for "Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6973.7% and 954.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with Buffalo priced at 0¢ despite the game occurring just 18 days away on 5/7/2026, generating a nonsensical 48,430% implied yield on the Yes side.

███████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

28¢

Bid/Ask 27/29¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,166.66·OI $5,197.82·Closes May 7, 2026·14d remaining

KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23BUFBOS-BUF1

7-day price246 snapshots · 21 regime

30¢27¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 23

Analysis

3d ago

This market displays extreme mispricing with Buffalo priced at 0¢ despite the game occurring just 18 days away on 5/7/2026, generating a nonsensical 48,430% implied yield on the Yes side. The complete absence of liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and the massive 48¢ spread indicate this is likely a stale or erroneous listing rather than a functioning market. The realized volatility of 4,472% and cliff risk index of 24 suggest significant data quality issues, making this contract unreliable for actual trading or prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals in the Buffalo at Boston professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6973.7%

IY (No) 954.0%

Adj IY 3228%

CRI 3

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.07

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6973.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	954.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3228%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 7:28:39 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 7:23:12 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23BUFBOS-BUF1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →