This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-55-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Consider selling on Kalshi at higher price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
↓ 60% | 35.0% |
↑ 70% | 26.0% |
Current↓ 55% | 11.5% |
↑ 75% |
↓ 50% | 6.7% |
↓ 40% | 3.1% |
↑ 80% | 2.4% |
↑ 90% | 1.5% |
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Kalshi | 91.0% | $8 | Trade |