This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
December 31 | 16.5% |
March 31 | 6.5% |
January 31 | 1.5% |
CurrentDecember 31, 2025 | 0.0% |