This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 12 12:00 PM ET to December 19, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Consider selling on Kalshi at higher price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
360-379 | 0.1% |
Current400-419 | 0.1% |
<20 | 0.0% |
120-139 |
Found 5 similar markets on other platforms.
| 8.0% |
| $639 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 14.0% | $755 | Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $10 | Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $90 | Trade |