Steve Hilton to win California Governor Election
Steve Hilton is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside California Governor Election Winner.
Price history
8¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Outcome
Steve Hilton
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Xavier Becerra 88¢
Range
0¢-88¢
Family volume
$29.6M
Identifier
0x119b6b3b...d19e
Jun 11, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · California Governor Election Winner
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$29.6M
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
0x119b6b3b…d19e
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 10¢, -2¢ versus this page.
Event family
California Governor Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29.6M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Xavier Becerra 88¢
Current share
7%
Xavier Becerra
polymarket · 0xa5d79e71e66c9fe122f8b8b3ca6ab7a0e3048bd8508f130746944e92ed79ddf3
Steve Hilton
polymarket · 0x119b6b3b744ac3239c7a71100165d254234eaecea401abde5a3d303bef21d19e
Tom Steyer
polymarket · 0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef
Alex Padilla
polymarket · 0x433587daba653f972f1bf49d41712ff02a0e73196c3a498a1e9d8e80c6587861
Chad Bianco
polymarket · 0x1a5b898bbfa1e697c19afeef356d9c1a6ecb95d2493c31524d3c75f16f782c3e
Kyle Langford
polymarket · 0x0a46731134b06c151d4f939bec58e07d784ed50ed214141286fd8bc9561608a3
Katie Porter
polymarket · 0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457
Betty Yee
polymarket · 0x43cf1b93d1b5420b158346f0e6e2993432014c4c09a213a1240fa7426c1c5af8
Rick Caruso
polymarket · 0x046941ddc09a5420aae85108b94bec3e1d7a3290b4144346cfc37e125282f958
Nicole Shanahan
polymarket · 0x5ff8465273252fdc32d12e91305d51133b87b5878464477141e2e6ca61b133e7
Stephen Cloobeck
polymarket · 0xa0a62ba83d66d748a4df1e36efffe85746d1e2b3a43167701f83826599fb51e8
Kamala Harris
polymarket · 0x6d6b9d5f81726194e8e5969bc5fd9ad5aefcf9ebe836f44d734e3fe18c15a805
Antonio Villaraigosa
polymarket · 0x555d4228698fed95802ef627c79ca8a16ff13680a7eef759311827f2c355fcf0
Toni Atkins
polymarket · 0x394b2be88763473da1df0943c934cfdc06cd33dea1c883cb178bfc56eb3a5c52
Eric Swalwell
polymarket · 0x957ddc82dc11959c5e6940b0239aecc050230c5b6ce8673bff21c14fe74bcb6e
Eleni Kounalakis
polymarket · 0x331cd65740d378b98427723b33b353c62241e7bdabfaa01daac48d9caf85b401
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.362
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.