China's annual inflation in 2026 between -0.9% and -0.5%
0.9 – -0.5% is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 9 inside China Annual Inflation 2026.
Price history
11¢ current
−32¢Contract brief
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Outcome
0.9 – -0.5%
Rank
#5 of 9
Leader
1.1 – 1.5% 34¢
Range
2¢-34¢
Family volume
$43K
Identifier
0x1dd2e27c...8d46
May 26, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#5 of 9
9 outcomes · China Annual Inflation 2026
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
Family volume
$43K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
Identifier
0x1dd2e27c…8d46
Event family
China Annual Inflation 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$43K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
1.1 – 1.5% 34¢
Current share
6%
1.1 – 1.5%
polymarket · 0x4d8a21e7451dff6419d6d55459119950664d8f93907314e9516fda182c55d6d1
<-1.0%
polymarket · 0x8c52b5498d48981d12b4e56bedaa011f8ea1db871528d321c248233b1da4b5cd
1.6 – 2.0%
polymarket · 0x88049a105cba5211bba80634b33b5059489d9c49145bf1c548c9cf2760267ba5
0.6 – 1.0%
polymarket · 0xf2b7f54d9b88d9baeddb2a541d503cafd7bbe35fdf0ebd3bdf9adb44432dcfe1
0.9 – -0.5%
polymarket · 0x1dd2e27c05035962c0d5fe54afd782afe645761e4ee10393dd661b8a07a38d46
0.1 – 0.5%
polymarket · 0x0643a9edd0e8b0dbe0e471371818f5c61a84949ae1e3fc72c8e4572be3a0fe3c
2.0-2.4%
polymarket · 0x97e8e99d8b96ca434a03a099c5dfb9b2b7747360978e5eb4cca0c3ce7eb5feaf
2.5%+
polymarket · 0xaf30ebe95c57934df90bc9126132e0ce5e61a567f5f0c475a5c6b3cad9a2e2f9
0.4 – 0.0%
polymarket · 0x2232f0c9135988f25dd8e6b2d12d3cd483d233e3ca9a7aa3c04afe0eef7bc647
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.