China GDP growth in Q2 2026 less than 4.0%
<4.0% is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 9 inside China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?.
Price history
2¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Outcome
<4.0%
Rank
#5 of 9
Leader
4.6-4.9% 55¢
Range
0¢-55¢
Family volume
$35K
Identifier
0x6887c26b...9665
May 24, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#5 of 9
9 outcomes · China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
Family volume
$35K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
Identifier
0x6887c26b…9665
Event family
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
4.6-4.9% 55¢
Current share
10%
4.6-4.9%
polymarket · 0x800be7611c7efcdf5827c049e0baac8b6047b506af412e283dbac9ce7e202560
4.9-5.2%
polymarket · 0x4af115cc5eadfbaa831523a17f297842011e6ba4175fc194b6d1e5e862193077
5.2-5.5%
polymarket · 0x339ef2e6999b5fb8d818bc46a33cb05052e232c4f98121b4977a66a5ac4bda52
4.3-4.6%
polymarket · 0x7ccef198fac90ac8a29aed052fc8c5c08b16bff84b3b4ded112248a9d8f885c2
<4.0%
polymarket · 0x6887c26b460f1a92154f3a69c728087738a267917f5e6de248d980d13b799665
4.0-4.3%
polymarket · 0xb141cf8b87ac142530d387f9099289e2ce8bbbfbbd5a80971758e5e601f1b2ae
5.8-6.1%
polymarket · 0xece9ba8a439ff9328741e56f112c78ae433a709a66acbb2580322f0413868cde
6.1%+
polymarket · 0xe8f6bff34996217c533756d90902bb2b2a3c01601f63e96c8d3c3015fc80102b
5.5-5.8%
polymarket · 0xfb442d0e8ab3dd32f376bdd0b0fdad1593a8050d00bccc7be0ae6809a7ebc2f1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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