China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Leader sits at 54% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.6-4.9%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
4.9-5.2%
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.6-4.9%
0x800be7…2560
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 5.2-5.5%
0x339ef2…da52
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.9-5.2%
0x4af115…3077
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.3-4.6%
0x7ccef1…85c2
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: <4.0%
0x6887c2…9665
What moved the line
- May 184.6-4.9%↓5pp57→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 175.2-5.5%↓4pp15→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 174.6-4.9%↑3pp54→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 194.6-4.9%↓3pp52→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 204.6-4.9%↑3pp49→52¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%Above -0.2%last 94% · 2d
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%Above 1.3%last 86% · 2d
- Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?: ≤-0.4%last 47% · 4d
- Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%Above 4.6%last 60% · 5d
- UK GDP growth in Q1 2026last 57% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.