Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24?

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $198.77K open interest and an extraordinarily wide 52¢ spread, suggesting the 34¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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34¢
Bid/Ask 32/35¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $230.226·OI $3,434.795·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0x6178933348f5538f8f3c924ffe984194d75fc3ff46d1d96c2884f958f80bddbb
7-day price153 snapshots · 2 regime
35¢34¢ current
Apr 1827¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $198.77K open interest and an extraordinarily wide 52¢ spread, suggesting the 34¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 12,727% on the Yes side is a red flag indicating potential mispricing or stale quotes, likely stemming from the massive bid-ask gap rather than genuine market expectations. With only 6 days to expiry and extreme realized volatility of 656%, traders should exercise extreme caution—the lack of recent price discovery and minimal information arrival (1.4/h) suggest this market may be abandoned or experiencing technical issues rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Querétaro's match outcome.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 24, 2026 If Querétaro FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 30175.9%
IY (No) 8008.1%
Adj IY 30176%
CRI 2
RV 953%
VR 0.53
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)30175.9%
IY (No)8008.1%
Adj IY30176%
CRI2
RV953%
VR0.53
IAR2.3/h
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:42:32 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:38:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x6178933348f5538f8f3c924ffe984194d75fc3ff46d1d96c2884f958f80bddbb yes 100

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