Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-1.5)

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-1.5). This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $149.8k open interest and a massive 42¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 29¢ price may not reflect true market consensus.

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48¢
Bid/Ask 46/50¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $270.5·OI $3,340.756·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0xdc105b35864cd5422413c375bf014d667ef6c5f0a05fae6b627789090d12e562
7-day price105 snapshots · 2 regime
53¢48¢ current
Apr 1828¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $149.8k open interest and a massive 42¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 29¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 25,052% on the Yes side is a classic sign of a distressed or mispriced contract near expiration (4 days remaining), likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine conviction about Club Universitario winning by 2+ goals. With realized volatility at 1,249% and the price declining 5¢ over 7 days, this appears to be a thin, potentially abandoned position that should be approached with extreme caution given the resolution cliff risk and upcoming April 22 match.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Universitario de Deportes" if Club Universitario de Deportes win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CD Garcilaso". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on liga1.pe. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 22000%
CRI 1
RV 214%
VR 0.07
IAR 0.8/h
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY22000%
CRI1
RV214%
VR0.07
IAR0.8/h
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:44:09 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:38:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xdc105b35864cd5422413c375bf014d667ef6c5f0a05fae6b627789090d12e562 yes 100

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