Cepeda Castro 0-5% · Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory
Cepeda Castro 0-5% is priced at 23¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?.
Price history
23¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Outcome
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 29¢
Range
0¢-29¢
Family volume
$71K
Identifier
0x13eff396...4dd3
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$71K
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x13eff396…4dd3
Event family
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$71K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 29¢
Current share
13%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
polymarket · 0x0c2924a04e0159dfdcd2996534d45bdbeade41cdf5cc084b532ec35563e83941
de la Espriella Win
polymarket · 0xe9e8784dd743d09e69a69f87debda6d97b175fd3ccfce7238f68274e30196986
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
polymarket · 0x13eff396ae562ffdc52f4d6897551191e64fa718890f1f26afd051e8b8554dd3
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
polymarket · 0xe689107d5893d698f499e186bf64b5a70b9b927654eaacf934b0582604c545f1
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
polymarket · 0xde94ee9bb90f45efa07a7cb069086941f68939494256c27ff1f9c098b681e218
Cepeda Castro 20%+
polymarket · 0xdee3c26a52d890e1b86ff9014d05566e4b05895c968de1e0b86e70c7f2cc9b4f
Valencia Win
polymarket · 0xbc12cd85c0cb00a48320d341b51b4eeab9b4b1a98f2a1ed494a332b143c712db
Other
polymarket · 0xc510fd09d6e1cfbfa57b7e673d78d138dbc4f7bb2b2dafe0e322ad9f1409569c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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