Colombia Election 1st Round

30-day trend

Analysis

This market measures the probability that Gustavo Petro's preferred successor, Francia Márquez or allied candidate, wins Colombia's first-round presidential election with a 10-15 percentage-point margin. At 38%, traders view a narrow victory in this range as more likely than the runner-up scenario (33%), suggesting competitive but not dominant performance. The relatively compressed probability distribution across margin bands reflects uncertainty about voter consolidation and turnout among left-leaning coalitions. Key drivers include economic conditions, voter enthusiasm for the ruling party's agenda, and fragmentation on the right. The outcome becomes certain on election day, which will reveal actual first-round results and determine whether winners advance to a runoff.

• ›Historical Colombian first-round margins: past elections show winners typically exceed 20-25% margins, making a 10-15% gap notably narrow by precedent
• ›Ruling coalition consolidation risk: the left's vote could splinter across multiple candidates, reducing the leading candidate's margin significantly below 10%
• ›Right-wing fragmentation: if opposition votes split across competing conservative candidates, the leading left candidate's margin could widen beyond 15%
• ›Voter turnout patterns: abstention rates and demographic participation shifts will directly affect the absolute vote gaps between top finishers
• ›Recent polling data and trend direction: surveys in the months preceding the election will show whether the frontrunner is gaining or losing ground relative to competitors

What moved the line

• May 21Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15%↓11pp32→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 25Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win↑10pp17→27¢ · Polymarket
• May 24Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15%↑9pp22→31¢ · Polymarket
• May 21Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 0-5%↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 25Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15%↓7pp31→24¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds