SimpleFunctions

June 30 · Crude Oil all time high by

June 30 is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Crude Oil all time high by...?.

Price history

6¢ current

5¢10¢
May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Outcome

June 30

Rank

#3 of 4

Leader

December 31 31¢

Range

0¢-31¢

Family volume

$481K

Identifier

0x806fb0e9...f879

May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

6¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$401

Family rank

#3 of 4

4 outcomes · Crude Oil all time high by...?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$481K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 7¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢21K
5¢511
4¢400
3¢4.7K
2¢10K
AskSize
7¢7.5K
8¢6.3K
19¢7
20¢13
22¢10
45¢200
48¢2.1K
49¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x806fb0e9…f879

SF Signal
SF Index
8878.57
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

17757.1%

IY (No)

72.3%

Adj IY

8879%

CRI

16

Overround

-0.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

17757.1%
72.3%
Adj IY
8879%
16
Overround
-0.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.