Crude Oil all time high by...
Leader sits at 32% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
September 30
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$15K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Crude Oil all time high by
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, with roughly one-third confidence. The current WTI benchmark stands well below its 2008 peak of $147, leaving substantial room for price appreciation. Market participants are pricing in moderate likelihood of this occurring within 7 months, though the runner-up outcome (September 30) trades at 25%, suggesting uncertainty about the timeline. The December contract's premium over nearer-term alternatives indicates traders view geopolitical or demand-side catalysts as more likely to emerge in the latter half of the year. Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, potential Middle East escalation, global demand recovery, and US dollar strength. There is no single scheduled trigger; instead, the resolution depends on accumulated macroeconomic conditions and energy supply dynamics through year-end.
- ›Current WTI crude price relative to the $147.27 2008 nominal peak and inflation-adjusted equivalents
- ›OPEC+ production quota compliance rates and announced output changes scheduled through Q4 2026
- ›Geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, particularly Middle East tensions and sanctions regimes
- ›Global GDP growth forecasts and industrial demand signals from China and Europe
- ›US dollar index trajectory, since crude is dollar-denominated and strong currency typically suppresses oil prices
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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