This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2025, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2024 to the annual level in 2025. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
<0.5% | 0.0% |
0.5–1.0% | 0.0% |
1.0–1.5% | 0.0% |
1.5–2.0% | 0.0% |
Current>2.5% | 0.0% |