Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Iván Cepeda Castro | 48.0% |
Abelardo de la Espriella | 33.5% |
Juan Manuel Galán | 5.3% |
Gustavo Bolívar | 5.2% |
Luis Gilberto Murillo | 3.0% |
CurrentClaudia López | 2.9% |
Roy Barreras | 2.7% |
Juan Carlos Pinzón | 2.7% |
Mauricio Cárdenas | 2.7% |
Paloma Valencia | 2.7% |
Daniel Quintero | 2.5% |
Enrique Peñalosa | 2.5% |
David Luna Sánchez | 2.4% |
Juan Daniel Oviedo | 1.7% |
Vicky Dávila | 1.5% |
Sergio Fajardo | 1.5% |
Miguel Uribe Turbay | 1.4% |
Germán Vargas Lleras | 1.1% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |