This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30". If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Consider buying on Kalshi at lower price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Google | 66.0% |
xAI | 21.5% |
None by June 30 | 7.9% |
OpenAI | 5.1% |
Anthropic | 2.5% |
DeepSeek | 1.5% |
Z.ai | 0.4% |
Alibaba | 0.1% |
Mistral | 0.1% |
Company Y | 0.0% |
Company P | 0.0% |
Company Q | 0.0% |
Company R | 0.0% |
Company S | 0.0% |
Company T | 0.0% |
Company U | 0.0% |
Company V | 0.0% |
Company W | 0.0% |
Company X | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
CurrentCompany D | 0.0% |
Company E | 0.0% |
Company F | 0.0% |
Company G | 0.0% |
Company H | 0.0% |
Company I | 0.0% |
Company J | 0.0% |
Company K | 0.0% |
Company L | 0.0% |
Company M | 0.0% |
Company N | 0.0% |
Company O | 0.0% |
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