This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
None in 2025 | 100.0% |
CurrentKhamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | 0.1% |
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0.1% |
Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 0.1% |
Macron - France President | 0.0% |
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0.0% |
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0.0% |
Trump - USA President | 0.0% |
Maduro - Venezuela President | 0.0% |
Takaichi - Japan PM | 0.0% |
Schoof - Netherlands PM | 0.0% |
Netanyahu - Israel PM | 0.0% |
Albanese - Australia PM | 0.0% |
Starmer - UK PM | 0.0% |
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