This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Drake releases Iceman | 87.5% |
GPT-6 released | 67.5% |
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 56.5% |
New Rihanna Album | 55.0% |
New Playboi Carti Album | 52.5% |
China invades Taiwan | 51.5% |
Trump out as President | 51.5% |
CurrentJesus Christ returns | 48.5% |
Bitcoin hits $1m | 48.5% |