Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
André Ventura (CH) | 45.5% |
António José Seguro (IND) | 30.5% |
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) | 12.0% |
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | 9.0% |
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) | 2.8% |
Catarina Martins (BE) | 0.1% |
Manuel João Vieira | 0.1% |
Humberto Correia | 0.1% |
Rui Moreira (IND) | 0.1% |
Paulo Portas (CDS) | 0.1% |
Tim Vieira (IND) | 0.1% |
Joana Amaral Dias (ADN) | 0.1% |
André Pestana (IND) | 0.1% |
CurrentOrlando Cruz (IND) | 0.1% |
Aristides Teixeira (IND) | 0.1% |
Manuela Magno (IND) | 0.1% |
Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND) | 0.1% |
Vitorino Silva (IND) | 0.1% |
Ângela Maryah (IND) | 0.1% |
António Filipe (PCP) | 0.1% |
Raul Perestrello (IND) | 0.1% |
José Cardoso (PLS) | 0.1% |
Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD) | 0.1% |
Jorge Pinto | 0.1% |
Candidate Z | 0.0% |
Person E | 0.0% |
Person F | 0.0% |
Person G | 0.0% |
Person H | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Candidate M | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate P | 0.0% |
Candidate Q | 0.0% |
Candidate R | 0.0% |
Candidate S | 0.0% |
Candidate T | 0.0% |
Candidate U | 0.0% |
Candidate V | 0.0% |
Candidate W | 0.0% |
Candidate X | 0.0% |
Candidate Y | 0.0% |
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