ECB rate hike in 2026
ECB rate hike in 2026 is priced at 93¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 92¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
93¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
ECB rate hike in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$119K
Identifier
0x26e6aa82...173f
May 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
92¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$119K
Orderbook snapshot
92 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x26e6aa82…173f
Event family
ECB rate hike in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$119K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
ECB rate hike in 2026 93¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.