What is the current probability for "Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 31, 2027. 275 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.7% and 35.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Polymarket, closing January 31, 2027.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 8/43¢·Spread 35¢·Vol $26.8·OI $207.517·Closes Jan 31, 2027·275d remaining

0xccdda72e8306018ecca67bb9e051c79183fb5a9d5bd323bf3dacb0c1839ed9c1

7-day price2000 snapshots · 5 regime

56¢21¢ current

Apr 185¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.7%

IY (No) 35.2%

Adj IY 499%

CRI 4

RV 6869%

VR 39.16

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	35.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	499%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6869%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	39.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	9.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

35¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 4:13:31 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xccdda72e8306018ecca67bb9e051c79183fb5a9d5bd323bf3dacb0c1839ed9c1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →