This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-under-15-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Consider selling on Kalshi at higher price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
↑ 25% | 100.0% |
↑ 30% | 20.5% |
Current ↓ 15% | 13.0% |
↑ 40% |
↑ 60% | 3.8% |
↓ 10% | 3.5% |
↑ 50% | 2.9% |
Found 3 similar markets on other platforms.
| 5.0% |
| $0 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 45.0% | $13 | Trade |