25 bps increase · Fed Decision in June
25 bps increase is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Fed Decision in June?.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Outcome
25 bps increase
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
No change 97¢
Range
0¢-97¢
Family volume
$39.6M
Identifier
0xa7cb4135...5db2
May 23, 2026, 11:24 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$82K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Fed Decision in June?
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Family volume
$39.6M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Identifier
0xa7cb4135…5db2
Event family
Fed Decision in June.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$39.6M
Outcomes
5
Highest price
No change 97¢
Current share
18%
No change
polymarket · 0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41
50+ bps decrease
polymarket · 0x4e4a7df876b0c04f0b8b29b9073eddfbaf5c787192da825ae7ca1031bc8cfd15
25 bps decrease
polymarket · 0xdde06286a7b9464d344f410ab0b3d2ebc6469904e72c27fd982f65fdbf78768d
25 bps increase
polymarket · 0xa7cb4135c6d9c36da0e343874dd5b455de739c6d1b9f9f5583dd9320aacf5db2
50+ bps increase
polymarket · 0xb01e70a56199a6d5467f47a2b94e75e7c7218c128c8d0b8beb6dafed2f0d15c2
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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