Turkiye · FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Turkiye is priced at 79¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 77¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages.
Price history
79¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Turkiye
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Spain 98¢
Range
16¢-98¢
Family volume
$39K
Identifier
0x8c28874a...1558
May 28, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
77¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$782
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
Family volume
$39K
Orderbook snapshot
77 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
Identifier
0x8c28874a…1558
Event family
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$39K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Spain 98¢
Current share
3%
Spain
polymarket · 0xbdb9f8af2767fa217f65b2a970a9ec46f88fcf3a96e94421a3b51bc8cda1e12a
Brazil
polymarket · 0xbc94d393aa6c0c1a3c8c23f0ab2f45e95d05cfd50266a993c582e84c5117d984
Portugal
polymarket · 0x94cac3a7ff4e968e68674c8dff21d74df39c9519291db5e4628486f977b1cad5
Argentina
polymarket · 0x8e534d6f28c124e3d7414561be384e79c4b108420d1c43a9a965289e2ec25576
Colombia
polymarket · 0x260688608f7d98c9cc5755228dbf4a04eb72c13308e603ba697b5f1ff4e8fe68
Netherlands
polymarket · 0x2deac4e9149d7933e977be2a572b46d427b5b52308553e385a42c8e9855ba536
Morocco
polymarket · 0x6ad7d53bc2a42daa2b9625eebf9651fd3aac1286078697182a3d1dc3bbd70173
USA
polymarket · 0x6bac5bbce7d0ef0a0e036fea1eb9ec66835c9795a553e766fa305b3a8b065d93
Turkiye
polymarket · 0x8c28874af6349a7e58f30909eecac5197bfdaa033b03ad98510853958ee41558
Sweden
polymarket · 0xbea8b7504ec86c42abb39512b385c4dc695ba6c1d3f4d3aa9dd0ceddb0957338
Bosnia and Herzegovina
polymarket · 0x9a2b2aeccf873af12a6171722d70d86e458492424a7adb700b011ca3b7cc28e7
Saudi Arabia
polymarket · 0xe28714396c63822d0c1293f2aad16aaca02a143a32f20b71fd7fb58f078d6602
Tunisia
polymarket · 0xebbdac391050303b03d01e3f53ee84050698d01a04dbeace9ecda45daef6fb4d
Qatar
polymarket · 0x3a6c34249d718a5bff78608e20b5cddefe722b73d5515524779747afb9c2a068
Cape Verde
polymarket · 0xf75a1084ea00a19ec34957397ea4d0a33258395ba6b50a2d4186ee0f77910c25
Iraq
polymarket · 0xcb1bcc07313aefb781b5e6426625e525d4071c93d2115a558808ef4495da50a4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.