Spain · FIFA World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation)
Spain is priced at 15¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 14¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside FIFA World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation).
Price history
15¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the nation that records the most total goals through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the nation who advanced farther in the competition. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation that is listed first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.
Outcome
Spain
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
France 18¢
Range
1¢-18¢
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
0x5cd13d5a...38bf
May 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$275
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · FIFA World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation)
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the nation that records the most total goals through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the nation who advanced farther in the competition. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation that is listed first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Identifier
0x5cd13d5a…38bf
Event family
FIFA World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation).
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
France 18¢
Current share
7%
France
polymarket · 0xb8444fb816c7ad24dd4405c912451cf437cdedfa4408e5894eca94944be9aeb9
England
polymarket · 0x955cf6a40141e288e3ba630b33ecde4bdef35f1702ad8424e11ad51e01ab1109
Spain
polymarket · 0x5cd13d5a537f34aa20502377e31e7b7db09fcd47450bba08606db26e6c1a38bf
Argentina
polymarket · 0x03dba6b5c5bf9fc59323fb8cb9e95949fa18fd6da60cbcaa0273e5ce81c2abc9
Germany
polymarket · 0xee49b84542384e31b287067f98789cd01b8f3d1827077523c3f06421566529e0
Brazil
polymarket · 0xdf51227511c10c0f331ecbed0d95cca320ba8c0bd6223957bf4b5f50c33d2e3a
Portugal
polymarket · 0x2431b6fdfb72ff0271407b1855601c057983c8ba3d33eba021c19c7a98cfce63
Uruguay
polymarket · 0xe7d71ed803e1520eb5fc47a35481a110e0fe1bb9e3e323dd1db64ead420d98e2
Norway
polymarket · 0xb1310bc2d0a325738b9e7c5fc1d8491caa459f5c08f5687ed17e09fff1d7718f
Netherlands
polymarket · 0x3ff075bd836664ba90a647fbd2f5cc784370623e4b0610ffe9447192e94d7aa7
Japan
polymarket · 0x095c2e0e9cebe004c1847f8bd6e436e1f65702867fee67926938d104a82f9e43
Colombia
polymarket · 0xd29e2a5a5b3d839171e4dbcf3f782f6ee942e9e352ce4a0a2d7a5e8671354b8b
Mexico
polymarket · 0xfdcd361f6d9f400bd56f39d9b6e8edaecaf51044161d399a7705363047a1b247
Belgium
polymarket · 0x6dd30fcc606070eb95cb81a3863a7293a7ed5014592415f4b3fa9f848189e35b
Switzerland
polymarket · 0x563fb88f97c51d7240df7e2cfd68a4f348800fb2ec62edb5c5bc1f31e4c58fdd
United States
polymarket · 0xe441df14890b26343247abe2eabc9bf7ecd219fcbbcdfbc002bc7c43225c6d48
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.