Sébastien Lecornu · French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026
Sébastien Lecornu is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 11¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?.
Price history
16¢ current
−17¢Contract brief
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Sébastien Lecornu
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 99¢
Range
3¢-99¢
Family volume
$11K
Identifier
0x86553916...2b03
May 24, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$150
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Family volume
$11K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Identifier
0x86553916…2b03
Event family
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 99¢
Current share
1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
polymarket · 0x2dc8ea613484bd1b2f4f5a3f1897aec372c2ebc29eb2d190f91bd99a79dd277f
Raphaël Glucksmann
polymarket · 0x6da385ea2ebde3fa047d7044a2f9133003cd5bb48e76fc916295831e5607b4c8
Jordan Bardella
polymarket · 0x69b97988a4e73259657c49ff7e0681492f7b20c5588d3bed40e555d0607d34ee
François Hollande
polymarket · 0xaef8daccd10bf6aab3cc46aceedd21b84bd54914e6a1e9c9ca74310f3d659621
Éric Zemmour
polymarket · 0x4ee4bd60d2df17f813bc2c2607592224952e0821e2a28d19a352773e4d462941
Marine Le Pen
polymarket · 0xb8d4f645345265faa4b7ab8082e5610b695561c412fd86be89fcc3661122a1a4
Carole Delga
polymarket · 0xb104e1e3bdbfb0b2fbf97cc5417cc61e48a57fd8407e7508a1431348f3229af5
Sébastien Lecornu
polymarket · 0x865539163ca6f68a5e5751f1b0c66f1667be9c3b082ae16cbb3c733751152b03
Élisabeth Borne
polymarket · 0xbd87b662935bd936d38c3786bb5914e4676ba0223dd1cd18403477aaefa5f875
Yaël Braun-Pivet
polymarket · 0xa999a2283b56596c536d965e99cf29eb138be5828d741aa0adb8b5c4110615be
Gérald Darmanin
polymarket · 0x9b8b2f5b164df335787b29d955fd769f2af517b55bedff616e90d65acd67158b
François Bayrou
polymarket · 0xb7e87432aca4030a0c7d9f38bbef04628a08329337489dc46c84de2aca0c7017
Valérie Pécresse
polymarket · 0xe815a82a541c0ae3723ddbbe5670012b02cd28a7daf339f5f49372ca01d21b56
Michel Barnier
polymarket · 0xa9a57689a34e9daea9a41d0c512a72c39d82b778d94276f4cbc7d9e3d3634ccb
Manuel Bompard
polymarket · 0x470e393465fb3d9994b33680ac035a2ca724c63be0abd41da47b2dd22c204845
Olivier Faure
polymarket · 0x8c0f92f51d6a82150bb7eedb87181fce0a449257135dfe403d41c42f40113304
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
How to Actually Make Money on Kalshi (Not the Advice You'll Find on Reddit)
A practical, data-driven guide to making money on Kalshi prediction markets. Screening, sizing, orderbook analysis, regime detection, and the strategies that actually work.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 16% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.