Dominique de Villepin · French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026
Dominique de Villepin is priced at 76¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 51¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 48¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?.
Price history
76¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Dominique de Villepin
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 99¢
Range
6¢-99¢
Family volume
$11K
Identifier
0x928d8213...fb80
May 24, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
48¢
Reported volume
$14
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Family volume
$11K
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Identifier
0x928d8213…fb80
Event family
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 99¢
Current share
0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
polymarket · 0x2dc8ea613484bd1b2f4f5a3f1897aec372c2ebc29eb2d190f91bd99a79dd277f
Dominique de Villepin
polymarket · 0x928d82137cedb27c275a1b0a602a45ffaf998a8478682151a98686688302fb80
Jordan Bardella
polymarket · 0x69b97988a4e73259657c49ff7e0681492f7b20c5588d3bed40e555d0607d34ee
Raphaël Glucksmann
polymarket · 0x6da385ea2ebde3fa047d7044a2f9133003cd5bb48e76fc916295831e5607b4c8
François Hollande
polymarket · 0xaef8daccd10bf6aab3cc46aceedd21b84bd54914e6a1e9c9ca74310f3d659621
Éric Zemmour
polymarket · 0x4ee4bd60d2df17f813bc2c2607592224952e0821e2a28d19a352773e4d462941
Carole Delga
polymarket · 0xb104e1e3bdbfb0b2fbf97cc5417cc61e48a57fd8407e7508a1431348f3229af5
Élisabeth Borne
polymarket · 0xbd87b662935bd936d38c3786bb5914e4676ba0223dd1cd18403477aaefa5f875
Sébastien Lecornu
polymarket · 0x865539163ca6f68a5e5751f1b0c66f1667be9c3b082ae16cbb3c733751152b03
Gérald Darmanin
polymarket · 0x9b8b2f5b164df335787b29d955fd769f2af517b55bedff616e90d65acd67158b
François Bayrou
polymarket · 0xb7e87432aca4030a0c7d9f38bbef04628a08329337489dc46c84de2aca0c7017
Yaël Braun-Pivet
polymarket · 0xa999a2283b56596c536d965e99cf29eb138be5828d741aa0adb8b5c4110615be
Valérie Pécresse
polymarket · 0xe815a82a541c0ae3723ddbbe5670012b02cd28a7daf339f5f49372ca01d21b56
Michel Barnier
polymarket · 0xa9a57689a34e9daea9a41d0c512a72c39d82b778d94276f4cbc7d9e3d3634ccb
Olivier Faure
polymarket · 0x8c0f92f51d6a82150bb7eedb87181fce0a449257135dfe403d41c42f40113304
Manuel Bompard
polymarket · 0x470e393465fb3d9994b33680ac035a2ca724c63be0abd41da47b2dd22c204845
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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